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RP GAMES The Resistance (beta 1.712)

I want to hear Dire and PF explain themselves before I theorycraft further. My opinion of dainjre is not swayed, but I allow that what he stated may be true. I find it unlikely though that DM and PF fell over each other. I think they are more competent than that.
 
Sheesh, this game really does favor the spies. lol

With that said, the process is still very similar. It just means the 5th member will have to be chosen even more carefully. The numbers aren't meant to be fair and calculated, so a hint of gambling is in order. There is only so much one can do with the finite information you are given, especially when you have so little data to work off of in round one (which we all sheepishly followed the instructions of DM, setting information behind a round).

You were not wrong in your thought process Run.

You're still partially correct. If we choose a new set for this mission and do not get any spies on it (like you stated) then we do win because even though the 4th mission requires 5, it also requires 2 votes to fail. So even with one spy in the 4th mission, it won't matter.
 
There would be no reason to include a spy in mission 4 if mission 3 is all resistance. Just because you lead a mission doesn't mean you have to be in it. Mission 4 would be the exact same composition as Mission 3. Resistance would vote any other comp down.
 
There would be no reason to include a spy in mission 4 if mission 3 is all resistance. Just because you lead a mission doesn't mean you have to be in it. Mission 4 would be the exact same composition as Mission 3. Resistance would vote any other comp down.

It's because you have to add a 5th member, so it doesn't matter who the member is. I'm pretty sure that's what Thief was going off of.
 
Well.

That's a crazy turn of events. I'm now going to have to totally rethink my strategy on who the spies are. I put Diremongoose at a 50% chance, but that's looking a LOT more like a 75% chance now, based on his PM's to myself and to others.

I am now in the belief that it is very likely he's trying to play exactly the same game as the game he won so well. He has made a grievous error in this case. And Dainjre failed to trust his partner, so that resulted in a double failure on this mission.

Otakebi hasn't really said enough for me to hold a proper opinion, other than to say silly things. But I think that might be inexperience more than anything else.
 
Ok, well I am going to share all the information I have. Beware this is a LOT of information.



MY conversation with fox.

PF "Otakebi. You are a spy. STOP BEING TERRIBLE AT IT.

You're making the game harder for the rest of us."

ME "Do I really look that much like a spy?"

PF "Yes. You are BLATANTLY hiding your information. Not only that, your are ADMITTING YOU'RE HIDING YOUR INFORMATION. Terrible spy behaviour.

Try not to make my sabotaging harder please."

ME "Well I am new to this, some advice would help."

PF "You're admitting you're a spy?

Brave choice. I COULD be playing you. I'm not, but I could have been."

ME "Trust, its the only thing we have in this game. But at the same time we don't have it.

Any ideas on the second mission? Too many spy votes will show alot of information."

PF "Indeed. Vote for the mission to succeed. I'm going to vote fail.

And then Diremongoose will probably crucify Dainjre."

Me "2 fails that will cause a commotion."

PF "It certainly will.

Which means, assuming you followed my instructions, that Diremongoose or Dainjre OR both are also spies..."



My conversation with Dire

Dire "You may or may not be a spy because of your lack of participation.

If you are a spy, start replying to PMs, if you are not, post in the main thread more.

Speak up, or you will be crucified after this vote. By both sides.

This is a test. Show your working."

Me "I am working, games like this require alot of observation, calculation and prediction. I play fighting games I am a more take it slow, and read people like a book kind of guy. Don't worry, I have this under control."

Me "Btw have you spoke to Kel?"

Dire "I have spoken to Kel, though not privately.

You continue to be nondescript to the point of suspicion, and if the upcoming mission fails I shall certainly be pointing my finger at you (though not just at you). Those of us with experience in these games know that being quiet is the easiest way for a mafia/werewolf/spy to be overlooked."

DIRE "Let's cut to the chase. PsionicFox has relayed to me a transcript. "You are a terrible spy" or the like. Sound familliar?

If this is true, write a snippet of the exchange between the two of you. Of course if you don't need any HELP...

Do not lie, you can still be of use."

Dire "Tick tock...this forum detects when you read a message."

Me "you mean:

"Otakebi. You are a spy. STOP BEING TERRIBLE AT IT.

You're making the game harder for the rest of us."

That one?"

Dire "Yes, that one. I will be voting to fail the mission now. You would be best voting for the mission to succeed. Psionic is attempting to emulate my success in previous games, so I can't tell for sure what side he is on. If you have been collaborating with him I encourage you to examine his motives. It is entirely possible he is leading me to false spies on purpose, though this is unlikely.

Vote succeed. If we have 3 spies on the mission we can't afford 3 fail votes. If you have already voted, change your vote now."

Dire "Do not repeat this conversation, especially if he asks you too."

Me "No problem. Also I am not instant replying due to my son, he was crying and wanting attention."

Me "2 fails on the one mission. That will cause quite the commotion."


As you can see I never once said I was a spy. They assumed, and Assumptions are dangerous, it has cost them alot of valuable information. Now of course lets look at the statistics. 2 fails on mission 2. Now my first suspicions was PF and Dire being spy.

My thoughts from before.

Fox is being way too judgemental of people and has since that serious post, my mind was made up. What a really good way to bring people to your side with some real life truth.

Dire, that guy has not once said he is resistance. He is claiming we do things his way for the better. But not once has he said it was for resistance or he is part of resistance.

Then came the 2 fails from the vote pretty much solidifying my thoughts. But I can not be 100% on where one of them was playing me or not. So I will be happy to say lets keep all 3 of them out of missions, and keep atleast, 2 spys out of the game. Now as for me I know, most will not trust me at this point but I am even willing to keep my self out of missions, If that is what you would like.

My thoughts now are PF is a spy, Dire is a Spy, I cant risk Djanire playing any part not knowing 100% if he is or not. Now as for the other 2 spys, I have ideas for one, no solid info yet tho. The 4th is a mystery.
 
I played the strategy I mentioned to you (Kel), Gyoin and Psionic. I was left pretty convinced that Dainjre and Otakebi were spies and that they would not vote to fail the mission.

From my perspective either I was wrong twice (unlikely), or I was wrong once and Psionic ALSO voted to fail the mission.

From your perspectives a minimum of 2 of us are spies. The obvious play is to choose 4 people who have never gone on a mission, and not thief because, quite frankly he's an obvious spy.

There is a maximum of 2 spies amongst the 6 people who have not been in a mission. Lets stick to my original plan and give them a shot.[DOUBLEPOST=1376524152,1376523466][/DOUBLEPOST]Otakebi's post is a true and accurate representation of the communication between us, and is representative of what I know about his conversation with Psionic.

Do you know how hollow saying 'I'm a resistance member lol' is? Go back and see who else hasn't explicitly stated this. Go on. Bring us back a list.[DOUBLEPOST=1376524483][/DOUBLEPOST]And while we're here, why doesn't EVERYONE post their PMs? There's no way information overload could be bad for the spies.
 
Otakebi's post is a true and accurate representation of the communication between us, and is representative of what I know about his conversation with Psionic.

This is true. And assumes I'm not trying to play Otakebi despite my protestation. So the safest plan is to tarnish my reputation, and the reputation of Diremongoose. Perhaps looking like a noob is a ploy? Regardless, to prove I'm not a spy, I will actively vote against any team that includes any of team 2's membership.
 
So let me get this straight. Both DM and PF told Ota that they wee spies and they planned to vote fail. Assuming Ota was a spy, they both told him to vote success. DM has reported that he told the same thing to dainjre.

According to the above transcript, DM and PF were collaborating since DM was in possession of the exact wording of PF's post. Yes, DM, PF, Gyoin, and myself collaborated in PM, but no such transcript was shared to anyone else. I think that means they meant to keep it between the 2 of them.

Neither DM nor PF have disputed the accuracy of the transcripts. My only question is if Ota posted it under orders from DM and PF or not. I tend to think not.

However, if Ota were a spy, I don't think he would have revealed the same info in the same way.

I can't see any other possibility than both DM and PF being spies, but I still find it unlikely that they both voted to fail the same mission. Dainjre has been strangely silent. licking his wounds after being chewed out by DM for disobeying orders? Perhaps. Or maybe DM and PF did make a very gutsy move, thinking they could pin it on dainjre and Ota.

For now, I consider PF, DM, Baldo, and dainjre to be the spies. Baldo is a shot in the dark, but I think it's a fair one. Thief is close behind on my suspicion list.

I recommend Gyoin, myself, Thief, and Ota for the next mission. Sub Baldo for Thief if you like, but I find them more suspicious than Ota at the moment.

PF and DM seem just fine with all new people going on a mission. I think that means they know 1 or more on their team is Resistance. Ota is the least suspicious to me at this time.
 
Thief is a demonstrably bad choice given his actions so far, but that's not for me to judge now I have a 50% minimum chance of being a spy. Statistically Otakebi has an equally high chance of being a spy as everyone else, and even if you believe his recent post exonerates him, it is still a logically poor choice for the reasoning I proposed in my last post. Think Baldo is a spy? He's been suspicious so don't include him, sure, but don't double dip. The least suspicious of the old team is still suspicious.
 
I originally also suspected otakebi just from his strange silence in the beginning but with all this new information I'm actually trusting otakebi more. Weighing the facts for him, he posts often usually. However he often gets corrected for his grammar which can get pretty annoying. So his original posting might just be a type of shyness. Since the only thing I had against him was the fact that he was quiet I no longer consider him a spy after the public release of this information.
 
Your whole tone seems different now, DM. I think you're in the middle of a shitstorm and doing your best to worm a way out.

It's not logical that both dainjre and Ota are spies and they both ignored you and PF. At most, one ignored you. I still have not heard from you or PF how you could possibly not be spies. The truth would be easy and come out quickly, but no explanation has been made.

Explain to me how 2 votes could be no without you or PF being spies. It's well established that the 2 of you were closely collaborating, but neither of you has turned on the other. I'm very certain you both are on the same side- the wrong one.
 
I played the strategy I mentioned to you (Kel), Gyoin and Psionic. I was left pretty convinced that Dainjre and Otakebi were spies and that they would not vote to fail the mission.

Actually, I was the one that suggested you tell dainjre and Ota that you were a spy. Assuming you were actually Resistance, the idea was that if they were spies, they would believe you, vote success, and the mission would go through.

YOUR idea was to wait for the mission to fail, then start accusing people. Like you somehow knew it was guaranteed failure.

But you had already started the strategy I proposed, but not for the same reason. You were looking for allies. That's why you didn't share what you were up to with Gyoin and I. Not then, and not even after the fact when everything hit the fan. But you did share with PF because you had found an ally.
 
YOUR idea was to wait for the mission to fail, then start accusing people. Like you somehow knew it was guaranteed failure.
It was logical to plan for the mission to fail. Had it succeeded then we could run the same team again with no changes. This is not the first time I have said this.


Actually, I was the one that suggested you tell dainjre and Ota that you were a spy.
The hell you were. How could you possibly know what I'd already done?



Do you really want me to feed-dump the interactions between Psionic and I? Go right ahead and read it.


P: So, Dainjre posted the next team. Everything seems to be going according to your plan.

D: Unfortunately, you are one of the few people I consider capable of attempting the same maneuvers I pulled in the previous games. This puts us at somewhat of an impasse with regards to communication. My strategy is obviously far from simple, but I can't discuss it with you as I could an outsider.

So we must skip the formalities and go straight to the game.

Are you a spy?
Do you think I am a spy?

P:I think any denial of spy status is foolish at best. It serves me no purpose as either a member of the resistance, nor as a spy. So I will simply not respond to your question. But I will return your question: Do YOU think I am a spy?

And despite past experience with your mind games - EXTENSIVE experience, I might add, I do not currently think you are a spy. You have yet to perform actions I deem spy worthy. Unlike Dainjre with his too-cavalier attitude.

D:I'm still not as convinced as you that dainjre is definitely a spy.

I have sent him a rather ambiguous PM which I hope will allow me to read his intentions. Failing that, the email appeals to him, as a spy, to vote to succeed the mission, claiming that I will vote fail.

It would amuse me greatly if this gambit pays off and no one votes to fail this mission.

P: Seems like a fair plan.

That said, you never said if you thought I was a spy. I answered your question, you answer mine.

D:It's not that simple is it? Because you are capable of pulling off a complex duplicity I can never be sure that you aren't doing so now. I would say that you are almost certainly resistance-like at the moment, but things change fast.

Thinking about how the spies should act, I disagree with you entirely on your most recent post, but it's a good move to try and fake-out a critical success for the resistance. I don't think the spies could recover if this mission succeeds, as mission 4 needs a double vote and should hopefully be another resistance win.

So I'm unsure as to whether I should publicly correct this obvious flaw or simply let it influence everyone and hope for the best. I am inclined towards the latter.
Your thoughts?

P:
I think the fake out can work. However, just to spite me, someone my vote fail anyway.You coming down on either side could either convince them to undertake such a plan, or avoid it entirely. But this would be my strategy were I a spy. Give the resistance a second win, and steal it away from them by avoiding suspicion.

D: In a game where the spies knew each other, yes, that might be an acceptable gamble, but given how likely the spies are to fuck up due to lack of coordination, I would say the risk would be too high. Of course, there's unlikely to be any central spy leadership, so individually they just might think your plan could work. I like it.

I've played enough games to know what suspicious behaviour looks like, I was more seeing what YOUR thoughts were - confirming it was a gambit is less suspicious behaviour than flawed logic. And me not picking up on flawed logic is ALSO suspicious behaviour.

I think I'll just let it slide, see if the others pick up on it (as they should), and wait for the mission vote. Then we either finally get some actual data rather than loops of bluffs and double bluffs...or a strong probability of overall winning.

P:
Based on discussions between you and I, and dainjre and myself, we can seriously mess with his head. If the spies ignore my 'advice', there will probably be a single fail vote. At which point, I told him that you would probably crucify him. I also emphatically told him to NEVER trust you.

So if you come at him from the other direction, we can have his head spinning as to who is really on his side, and who isn't. Paralyzing another player, regardless of allegiance is good for us. It thins the herd, affording us a better opportunity to ferret out the real spies. Sort of like what you did to Baldorax in the last game. You froze him out, and he was never able to recover. If we're canny and clever, we can pretty much shut him out of any decision-making process, and devalue any of his arguments. If he IS a spy, then we need to find 3 in 9. If he ISN'T, then we just need to find 4 in 9. And I like those odds.

D:
I have already emphatically told him that he a spy and that I am one too, and he now claims he will vote 'succeed' on the next vote 'so that multiple spies don't vote to fail', at my behest. I call that a win.

There's only one thing more that I need from him - who he's been talking to and who he thinks is a spy. Assuming the mission fails I can get those from him.

He's already a dead-man walking, I can make the case very easily. All I think we need to do is ignore monitor him now - he won't get on another mission unless group cohesion breaks down entirely (towards the end of the game perhaps). I don't think we need so much unnecessary complexity vs someone I am sure is a spy.


P:My conversation with Otakebi

Me: Otakebi. You are a spy. STOP BEING TERRIBLE AT IT.

You're making the game harder for the rest of us.

Otakebi: Do I really look that much like a spy?

Me: Yes. You are BLATANTLY hiding your information. Not only that, your are ADMITTING YOU'RE HIDING YOUR INFORMATION. Terrible spy behaviour.

Try not to make my sabotaging harder please.

Otakebi: Well I am new to this, some advice would help.

Wow. Just...wow.

------------
At this point I message Otakebi in in the hope of ensuring my 'no fail votes' strategy.
Vote occurs
 
I think that is a true account that DM posted.

What it tells me is that in all likelihood, both DM and PF are spies. Both expected dainjre and Otakebi to vote succeed, whether they were spies or not, and in fact, they did.

Both DM and PF then voted to fail the mission. This was the piece I was missing. Of course DM and PF wouldn't trip over each other, IF they knew they could trust each other. However, they did not identify each other as spies until after the vote. I mean, what are the chances, right? And they couldn't afford a 2nd Resistance win. As they stated, not with the 4th mission needing 2 votes. So they both voted fail, to hilarious result. Dainjre and Ota are not 100% off the hook, but it looks at least plausible for them to be Resistance.

Here's what ultimately convinced me that DM is a spy: He contacted PF, Gyoin, and I to discuss strategy. However, he had already put a strategy in motion by PMing dainjre and telling him that he (DM) was a spy. DM didn't mention this was going down, even after I independently suggested the same thing. He was right, I had no way of knowing what he'd already done. Great minds think alike, I guess. A little too much alike since PF had the same thing going on with Otakebi.

If DM and PF were Resistance, they would have told Gyoin and/or I what was happening. But both of them have been completely silent to me since their plans backfired. I'd love to see the conversation that took place between them after the vote results were announced. That, I'm sure, is comedy gold.
 
If DM and PF were Resistance, they would have told Gyoin and/or I what was happening. But both of them have been completely silent to me since their plans backfired.

This is not a fair or reasonable judgement. I have no doubt that there has been other similar conversations between other players. This is merely the most public.

I have been silent on the thread since Gyoin said words to the effect "I believe this thread has been compromised and I will no longer be replying". I thought that was pretty much the end of that discussion.
 
I'm done with Dire, he's burnt. PF as well, really. I can't see any other way.

Who has ideas on the last 2 spies? Based on our last few communications, I'm less sure of dainjre and Otakebi. Baldo is still highly suspicious, and there's a good chance of Thief being one as well.
 
I think its funny how quick you are to believe the worst of us. I targeted Otakebi because he seemed suspicious. You want to know what happened? I got played. I thought I was smartest guy in the room. So I figured I could fake out someone I was sure was a spy. Otakebi.

No Otakebi, an actual spy, has used our private convo to make the rest of the resistance distrust me.

Well played. But to be certain, do not allow any team with the last four mission goers to go ahead on this round. That is the best play for the resistance. I'd love to see how you react when your own name gets tarnished Kel. We'll see how it feels when others are quick to judge and condemn you. I don't think you're a spy, but the slander will still hurt.
 
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